Impacting US fleet won't be easy
A new study by the Boston Consulting Group contains some good news regarding alternative energy – some alternative energy sources could be viable market alternatives faster than many expect. In terms of electric cars, however, BCG is relatively inline with what most research has suggested: 5 – 10 percent penetration by 2020.
Also, BCG warns that electric cars could lose their luster as an environmental solution.
“If there is insufficient low-carbon power-generation infrastructure, EVs will struggle to be seen as a solution for reducing carbon emissions significantly.”
Along those lines, BCG suggests that “off-shore wind and carbon capture and sequestration” technologies will probably be unsuccessful. However, advanced biofuels, on-shore wind energy and solar power seem headed for cost-effective viability, possibly within the decade.
In fact, the BCG study suggests that biofuels could “significantly disrupt the status quo in fuel markets” if remaining obstacles are overcome, but EVs, the study warns, will have limited timely impact. Even under best case adoption scenarios through 2020, the time it takes to turn over the current fleet, otherwise known as the legacy effect, would require decades of new sales. Biofuels on the other hand could plausibly replace much gasoline and be implemented without replacing much of America's 250 million vehicle fleet.
Pretty interesting biofuel forecast. I'm not sure I've seen any other study quite so bullish on the possibility of biofuels, which makes me wonder if Boston Consulting Group has any indirect connection to that industry.