An upcoming member of the Prius family
Will the Prius still be enough?
Perception matters. And when it comes to Toyota, it’s perception as the green leader has helped the automaker weather the recent storm of recalls hammering the company. But the Toyota Prius isn’t quite the top dog it once was.
The competition is heating up, but does Toyota still have an advantage?
With cars like the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf now selling, the technology powering the current Prius family isn’t as impressive as it was a few years ago. Nevertheless, the technology in the Prius is still far more cost-effective than the competition’s offerings. Additionally, next year Toyota will add a plug-in version of the Prius to the family and a battery electric version probably isn’t too far behind. Even a fuel cell hybrid Prius could become a reality by 2015.
Inevitably, by 2020 every automaker will be selling numerous and various types of battery-powered vehicles, but who’ll be selling the most ‘green’ vehicles?
According to almost every forecast, hybrid cars will outsell all types of plug-ins combined well into the 2020’s. Since Toyota already sells more than half of all hybrids sold today, such hybrid forecasts seem to bode well for Toyota’s future, particularly considering the expansion of the Prius family.
Now, perhaps plug-ins will defy the experts from the likes of JD Power, for instance, but another wild card against Toyota hybrid domination could be mild hybrid cars, a hybrid powertrain that could challenge full hybrids like the Prius according to some forecasts, such as those from the EIA. Of course, having already sold millions of hybrid cars, maybe mild hybrids are simply no match for Toyota’s HSD in terms of performance or costs and really only an option for Toyota’s competitors.
Consequently, while many in the green and plug-in communities often pooh-pooh the Prius and its lack of a plug – for now – as well as it’s use of NiMH technology, the fact is Toyota will probably still be selling far more battery vehicles than either Nissan or GM in 2020 – or any other automaker for that matter. More important, I’ll bet Toyota will still have achieve a far greener fleet CAFE rating than either GM or Nissan in 2020, and if you’re actually concerned about results and change, isn’t fleet fuel economy what matters most?
Too often it seems we want to run before we walk. Thus, when we become concerned about our health, for instance, we start running like a marathoner while making drastic changes to our diet. Almost always such drastic actions lead to negative results, while someone that makes constant, steady progress in their exercise and diet plans usually achieve far more significant results overtime.
Such a kaizen-like approach to health is exactly the same philosophy that drives Toyota. In fact, it’s the same philosophy that has given new life to Ford thanks to Alan Mulally, a kaizen disciple schooled in the Toyota production model. And I’ll bet it’s that same philosophy that will keep Toyota atop the green car rankings in 2020.