Does 1 million plug-ins by 2015 even make sense?
The auto industry, particularly the mainstream auto industry, is largely dependent upon 1 single factor for success: scale. Thus, President Obama’s plan to have 1 million plug-ins on the road by 2015 has some logic. It’s a move dedicated to driving down costs by increasing scale.
Yet a recent report claims that automakers are not on a path to achieve such a goal. Maybe that’s because such a goal just doesn’t make sense?
“The production intentions of automakers are currently insufficient to meet the 2015 goal, and even the current plans for production volume may not be met,” claims a blue ribbon panel from Indiana University according to the DetroitNews.
That begs the question, why aren’t automakers on a path to achieve 1 million plug-ins by 2015 considering that there are enough combined plug-in tax credits amongst the majors to easily hit this number by 2015? Likewise, between now and then Toyota alone might sell 1 million hybrids in the US.
Sadly, because 1 million plug-ins based upon today’s lithium-ion battery technologies is not nearly enough to achieve the kind of scale that will make plug-ins viable seems to be the obvious answer. In fact, volume isn’t really even part of the equation yet according to numerous experts.
Yesterday, in Do tax credits for hybrids and/or plug-ins really make sense?, for example, I referenced GM’s Jon Lauckner stating that volume is not yet critical to scaling down the costs of battery powered vehicles. Unfortunately, as most lithium-ion battery researchers and studies have noted thus far, technological breakthroughs are still required before serious penetration is even possible.
Quite simply, today’s lithium-ion technologies are completely incapable of mainstreaming electrification. Without major technological breakthroughs plug-in cars are guaranteed niche status forever. You can’t just build them and they will come – at least not enough of them to make these vehicles profitable.
Back in the late 90’s rushing into the Internet seemed like the greatest idea ever, until the dot come bubble burst. Despite great intentions, rushing into plug-in vehicles might result in the same kind of bubble. The batteries just aren’t yet up to the task.