Hybrids. A great choice today. An introduction to tomorrow.
Walking before you run
According to a new Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) European Bureau paper, plug-in vehicles will remain a niche technology through at least 2025. Consequently, the study claims it is extremely important that conventional hybrid cars and more efficient internal combustion engines are supported by the same policies seeking to promote electrification.
As a result the Fédération calls for technology neutral policies that reward all clean mobility solutions while promoting R & D spending.
E-mobility, with the definition used in the present paper, will still only represent a niche market up to 2025. While we support the trials and market roll-out of EVs, and specific measures to address the concerns and challenges we have identified, it is vital that attention should not be diverted from promoting the continuing efficiency improvements in conventional ICE-driven cars and the adoption of conventional hybrids.
I simply couldn’t agree more. In my opinion, the legacy effect of today’s fleet of vehicles demands more comprehensive energy policies, with a particular focus on today, at least for any country truly concerned about timely energy security and CO2 emission reductions.
Besides, I’d bet that one of the best paths to plug-in adoption is hybrid adoption. When a Toyota Prius or Ford Fusion hybrid driver, for instance, creeps through congestion via mostly electric power, the idea of pure electric power becomes much more tangible and intriguing. Suddenly, more electric power is desired.
And since a change in consumer behavior is required for widespread EV adoption, hybrids offer a great way to introduce consumers to electrification. Even most EV adoption studies point to hybrid drivers as the key demographic for initial plug-in adoption.
Moreover, with $4.00 gasoline becoming common, many hybrid cars actually become cost-effective buys. Already the Prius is considered to be one of the best value buys available. So, few incentives would be required to incite greater rates of adoption, but the upside in terms of increasing fuel economy and reducing emissions is huge.
Big bang for little buck.
On the other hand, plug-in hybrid and electric cars have a longer journey to cost-effectiveness and consumer-friendliness. Inevitably, major battery breakthroughs are probably required before plug-in vehicles can move into the mainstream. Fortunately, when that battery revolution happens, many conventional hybrid cars will be able to utilize those breakthroughs via plug-in conversions.
As a result, any hybrid sold today is a potential plug-in hybrid tomorrow. That’s a legacy effect killer.
Finally, it could be decades before many consumers even have the ability to plug-in. Conventional vehicles are going to be around for many decades, and there are many cost-effective, fuel efficient technologies available right now to get the job done, along with hybrids.
Putting off until tomorrow what can be done today is seldom the best idea.
While it would be convenient if there was one simple turnkey solution to the world’s energy problems, even just US or European problems, there simply isn’t. It’s going to take comprehensive policies, equally focused on today as tomorrow, to achieve any timely change – and even that will still take decades.