A newly released report by WWF-UK concludes that at least 1.7 million electric vehicles—plug-in hybrid and battery-electric—will be needed by 2020 and 6.4 million by 2030 if the UK is to achieve its climate change targets. EVs would then represent 6% of all UK cars in 2020 and 18% in 2030, and 15% and 20% of new car sales in 2020 and 2030, respectively.
The study examines three different scenarios—Business as usual (BAU); Extended; and Stretch—based on low, medium and high levels of EV uptake. The scenarios assume a 50:50 split between plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles. All three scenarios also assume near decarbonization of the grid by 2030. The middle scenario is the one matching the
recommended level of EV penetration in line with the UK achieving a 34% carbon
reduction target by 2020.
The highest scenario (Stretch) is in line with achieving a 42% carbon reduction target by 2020. The study finds that the highest levels of EV uptake would lead to very significant reductions in UK fuel demand representing more than £5 billion (US$8 billion) per year in avoided oil imports. Also in the highest case scenario, a combination of high EV uptake; improvements in the efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs); and demand management measures to reduce the amount people drive could potentially deliver a 75% reduction in car emissions by 2030. EVs could provide nearly a third of this emissions reduction.
WWF-UK says that government subsidies and other incentives will be needed to help get the necessary number of EVs on the road: a minimum of 1 in 17 cars by 2020 and 1 in 6 by 2030. These incentives will have to attractive enough to overcome consumers’ concerns over price, range anxiety and lack of charging points.
It is vital that people start consuming and travelling less to make a transition to a low-carbon economy and reduce our dependency on oil and emissions from cars. Road transport accounts for 40 per cent of petroleum products consumed in the UK so a switch from conventional cars powered by petrol or diesel to EVs would have a much needed impact on reducing fuel demand.
—David Norman, Director of Campaigns, WWF-UK
The study also says that other priorities for innovation and investment are reducing the cost and improving the performance of EV batteries, and decarbonizing the grid. A
Europe-wide approach to grid infrastructure will also be needed if EVs are to be
powered by a decarbonized European grid, in order to deliver maximum carbon
savings both in the UK and on the continent.
The study suggests that biofuels should be considered a last resort for sectors where at present
there are no practical alternatives to fossil fuels, such as aviation, shipping
and heavy goods transport. The use of biofuels for the passenger car segment
should not be considered a high priority, the study says.
It is important to note that these scenarios are intended to provide insights, not forecasts. They aim to provide a better understanding of the role EVs could play, as
well as what has to happen in order for EVs to realize their potential. The future is
likely to lie somewhere between the scenarios that this report describes. However, it
is clear that at least 1.7 million EVs will be needed by 2020 and 6.4 million by 2030
in order to achieve the level of ambition that we need.—“Electric avenues&Rdquo;
The report is based on research commissioned by WWF-UK and prepared by Element Energy Ltd. It
includes the main findings of the consultants’ research
and presents the WWF-UK view of what these findings mean.
Resources