Is a plug + an engine just not cost-effective?
Do pure battery electric cars have a scalable advantage?
When it comes to battery-powered technologies, I’m a big fan of hybrid cars. They simply offer the most bang for the buck and; therefore, the greatest market penetration potential. Considering the impact of the 2 decade+ legacy effect upon foreign oil dependence, market penetration is of critical importance today.
Similarly, when it comes to plug-ins, I also favor the hybrid version, although plug-in hybrids don’t typically offer the most cost-effective plug-in option. It’s just that plug-in hybrids are more consumer friendly and more fungible in terms of fueling options – at least in today’s North America.
Still, if plug-in hybrids aren’t successful outside of America, can they profitably succeed?
According to a recent Pike Report, the US and Canadian markets offer the greatest interim market potential for plug-in hybrids. Europe will probably favor plug-in electrics a bit more, but Asia – at least according to Pike – will strongly favor pure electric cars. As a result, by 2015 plug-in electrics are set to control 56 percent of the plug-in market.
Certainly, 56 percent of the market isn’t enough to provide that much of scaling advantage, but it’s a very noteworthy advantage nonetheless.
If Asia – essentially the world’s most important auto market now, and even more so heading into the future – favors pure electric cars already, then the upside potential of pure electrics seems much greater than that for plug-in hybrids. Considering the cost-effective advantage of the more simple pure electric drive train, this greater market potential could mean far greater scale for battery electrics versus plug-in hybrids, and exponentially cheaper costs, even by just 2020.
Double the range of these plug-in electrics in the next decade and far greater market penetration and scalable advantages seem even more possible – although both plug-ins will still offer relatively niche levels of market penetration. Nevertheless, more sales mean better scale and eventually cheaper costs .
Obviously, it’s still too early to suggest a winner in plug-in dominance, and both types of plug-ins will be around for decades. Yet, when it comes to hybrids, the best kind might always be the one without a plug, especially as – and if – alternative fuels truly enter the fray. On the other hand, the best plug-in will probably be the one without an engine – although fuel cells might soon mean the best electric car not only skips the engine, but the plug as well.