Breaking out of the transportation box
Is the battery really the future of the auto industry?
In my opinion the key to US energy independence, as well as a vibrant US auto industry, will be disruptive technologies. Consequently, something like auto-drive, I believe, offers the potential to change everything about transportation in ways we can barely imagine.
Of course, there are many other disruptive technologies out there as well, such as batteries, carbon fiber or photovoltaics. And recently, I’ve wondered more and more if hydraulics, particularly hydraulic fuel cell hybrids, could become a disruptive technology.
Today the costs of fuel cells are rapidly declining. Next gen fuel cells will use less platinum than a conventional car and new fueling options such as biohydrogen and methanol are beginning to appear financially viable. And hydraulics might make fuel cell hybrids even cheaper.
In terms of fuel economy, large hydraulic hybrids are a proven technology, but if this technology is to become relevant, it has to scale down into smaller vehicles, a process now underway. Eventually, if a conventional hybrid can be made equally as fuel efficient using hydraulics instead of a battery, at cheaper costs, that alone might be a disruptive technology.
Additionally, if hydraulic hybrids are cheaper than battery hybrids, then hydraulics can make fuel cell hybrids cheaper as well. Add a methanol fuel cell and such a hybrid could ultimately be powered by biomass, natural gas or any other fossil fuel, some form of methanogenesis, or even CO2.
Nevertheless, one thing is clear today. The lack of widespread hybrid and electric vehicle adoption boils down to one simple thing: battery costs. According to some of the most distinguished battery researchers – scientists that have been working on lithium for the last 30 years – it could take decades to resolve this battery cost issue into one that truly mainstreams battery-powered vehicles. Certainly, these scientists could be wrong, but their forecasts are based on science and decades of experience, so their opinions are at least worthy of consideration.
However, what if batteries, or at least batteries as we know them, simply aren’t needed for either hybrids or electrification because of hydraulics and fuel cells? Additionally, what if hydraulic hybrids mean less critical resources from foreign countries are required for US energy independence?
Obviously, hydraulic hybrids might never become viable, nor might fuel cells. Of course, lithium might never spawn the revolution so many are counting on either. Regardless, I’ll bet that the future of personal transportation is destined for a disruptive future, and the sooner a one size fits all solution is set aside in favor of ever greater and constant adaptability, the sooner the evolution of transportation will pick up pace.