Plugging in just a niche technology for decades?
The plug-in revolution will take decades to advance into the mainstream
As I’ve rested in bed the last several days, struck down by a nasty virus, one quote has been bouncing around my head.
“To compete with advancing gasoline/diesel engines, EV traction batteries have to be much more than twice as energy dense as lithium-ion ever will be, at least three times cheaper, and last much longer before replacement.”
“As lithium-ion ever will be”. That’s a pretty strong statement put forth by the TrendTracker report, “Electric Vehicles: Energy, infrastructure and the mobility market in the real world”.
Of course, that doesn’t mean TrendTracker is right. However, in the last few years similar sentiments have been put forth by some of the most renowned researchers in the lithium battery industry – people that have been developing lithium batteries for 30 years. Additionally, numerous academic and industry studies and forecasts have come to similar conclusions. Even Toyota has made this same claim.
Unfortunately, if true, it will probably take decades to move beyond lithium.
Nevertheless, while lithium might not be the perfect technology to mainstream plug-in vehicles across the globe, it will still be an undoubtedly critical interim technology. Moreover, coupled with some kind of dynamic charging breakthrough, for instance, perhaps lithium’s capabilities could be extended. Regardless, lithium alone doesn’t appear to be the game-changing technology many hoped it would become – including me – at least not without supplementary technologies or a revolutionary change in consumer behavior.
Yet, ironically, the TrendTracker report also notes that dwindling oil supplies could make electrification essential by 2050, despite the fact that the auto industry currently seems to be on track to continue to produce mostly fossil-fueled vehicles through at least 2050.