How would another gas spike affect consumers, voters?

Libya and Algeria could push oil above $200

With Nomura forecasting that if Algeria follows Libyan disruptions oil prices could rise to $220 per barrel, another serious gas spike is beginning to seem quite probable. Scarily, this forecast doesn’t even include the possibility of problems in Saudi Arabia. Certainly, most worst case scenario forecasts probably won’t happen. Still, oil seems headed higher nonetheless.

So, how would another gas spike to $4.00+ change consumers and voters this time around?

While a big immediate push to fuel efficient vehicles would certainly be the immediate response, would it be sustainable? After just a few short years following the 2008 spike, truck sales again jumped past 50 percent of all US sales, while sales of hybrid cars have been stymied.

Consequently, will it take much higher prices to force real change? Say $5.00 or $6.00 gasoline? Even worse, will consumers assume that a new spike is just another spike to be followed by another crash in oil and gas prices?

What about voters? With a new swing towards Republicans, will “drill, drill, drill” be the primary focus? Or, could another spike push voters back towards a more Democratic agenda focused around plug-in vehicles?

Ultimately, I don’t think another gas spike will lead to significant changes in consumer behavior long term, but it might just provide the impetus to the beginning of a serious, national discussion about the desperate need to reduce US foreign oil dependence as quickly and expediently as possible.

Maybe 2012 could be the year energy independence dominates the political arena?